AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shockwave: A tentative US-Iran peace deal and talk of reopening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil tumbling toward a three-month low, while markets rallied on hopes of easing supply risks. Market Spillovers: India’s rupee strengthened as crude fell, and traders watched for further relief in fuel-linked inflation. Renewables Grid Reality Check: South Africa warned of a “profound mismatch” between fast-growing renewables and grid management, highlighting congestion and balancing challenges. Wind + Storage Push: Moldova is moving to auction another 170 MW of wind paired with 44 MWh storage to fix solar-heavy imbalance and cut import dependence. Offshore + Skills Pipeline: The UK faces a workforce gap for offshore wind, with a report urging faster training scaling to hit 2030 targets. New Solar Milestone: Liberia switched on its first utility-scale grid solar plant (20 MW Mount Coffee), with plans to expand capacity and add battery storage. Nuclear Operations Update: TEPCO resumed Fukushima treated-water releases after a brief internal power-related halt. Energy Policy Governance: Nepal’s budget puts energy at the center of industrial and digital transformation, but calls are growing for integrated “one energy” governance.

US–Iran Ceasefire & Hormuz Reopen: President Trump says the deal is “complete,” authorizing the immediate removal of the US naval blockade and a toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran confirms an immediate end to military operations and a 60-day nuclear/sanctions negotiation phase; markets reacted fast with crude sliding on hopes of restored flows, but experts warn it could take months for shipping, demining, insurance, and refining to fully normalize. Nuclear Safety Review: After the Mindanao earthquake, the Philippines is asking the IAEA to re-check potential nuclear sites, including SMR locations, against seismic and volcano risks. UAE–China Green Push: Abu Dhabi’s energy chief says the emirate is accelerating ties with Chinese firms for renewables, EVs and robotics to speed up infrastructure. Solar Breakthrough: A new world record was set for perovskite-silicon and triple III-V germanium solar module performance, underscoring rapid efficiency gains. Grid & Storm Impacts: Multiple regions reported storm-related power outages and restoration efforts, highlighting ongoing grid resilience challenges. Oil Market Watch: Analysts flag that even with Hormuz reopening, lingering logistics and political uncertainty could keep energy prices volatile. Sanctions Enforcement: Britain detained a sanctioned Russian “shadow fleet” tanker in the English Channel, calling it a blow to resources funding Moscow’s war.

US-Iran De-escalation: Iran says it will freeze parts of its nuclear program while the US eases oil sanctions, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and moves toward releasing about $25bn in frozen assets, with a final framework due within 60 days. UK-Russia Sanctions Enforcement: British forces intercepted a sanctioned Russian shadow-fleet tanker in the English Channel in a first-of-its-kind operation, aiming to disrupt war funding. Middle East Energy Disruptions: Ukraine confirmed long-range strikes on Russian oil and chemical facilities (including an Azot plant), while Basra saw two separate fires at oil and fuel sites and Erbil and Baghdad coordinate security to restart Kurdistan oil exports. Grid & Storage Moves: PacifiCorp may sell or decommission the Bigfork hydro project over costly dam-safety upgrades; Aegis Critical Defence Energy secured BC Hydro supplier registration for certified battery storage, unlocking rebates up to 80%. Nuclear Momentum: GlobalData forecasts SMR capacity could rise sixfold by 2030 as more countries plan deployments. Energy Prices & Policy: Rising crude keeps pressure on inflation and household bills, while India pushes ethanol toward a “transport energy backbone” to blunt oil-shock exposure. Market Watch: EU regulators say AI and algorithmic gas trading should be monitored as tools to fully assess risks are still catching up.

Oil Market & Inflation: U.S. May inflation hit 4.2% as energy prices surged, with gasoline and heating-oil costs driving much of the jump. Middle East Energy Risk: Qatar’s media office rejected a Washington Post claim of coordination with Iran, while reports of a tentative U.S.-Iran 60-day framework keep Strait of Hormuz open and allow Iranian oil sales to continue. Oil Prices Slide: Brent and WTI fell to multi-month lows as markets priced in easing Middle East risk and traders tracked shifting forecasts. Gas Supply Moves: Kuwait’s KPC approved an Egypt offshore gas exploration project near Alexandria, targeting first output in Q4, and AGOCO boosted output at Egypt’s NC2 B1-NC2 well from ~300 to nearly 4,000 bpd. Geopolitics on the Grid: Kherson region saw blackouts linked to disruptions in Russia’s Zaporozhye system, and Zaporizhzhia’s plant was reported reconnected to the grid after outages. Renewables & Power Systems: Nepal launched a 15-day plan to clear disorderly telecom/internet wires in Kathmandu Valley, while Bangladesh’s budget earmarked heavy energy and power development spending and set a renewables target for 2030. Environment & Spills: Pakistan’s Gwadar coastline faced a major crude oil contamination incident, and Venezuela pressed Trinidad and Tobago for accountability over a reported second spill. Energy Infrastructure & Policy: India’s energy ministry launched steps to manage messy overhead wires in Kathmandu Valley; in the U.S., a report says the oil-stocks number is changing as private data takes a bigger role.

Geopolitics & Oil Markets: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz closure threat and wider US-Iran tensions are again rattling crude and gas flows, with analysts warning the shock could spill into logistics and broader commodity costs. Inflation Watch: In the US, energy prices helped push May CPI to 4.2%—the highest since 2023—underscoring how oil moves quickly into household budgets. Crude Slide: Brent and WTI both fell to multi-month lows as markets priced in possible diplomacy, while Goldman cut its 2027 Brent view to $80. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Ukraine-linked strikes hit Russian oil and gas facilities in Volgograd and Krasnodar, raising the risk premium for refining and pipeline operations. Power Reliability: Storms left thousands without electricity in multiple places, while Cape Town scheduled major grid maintenance affecting Deep South suburbs. Renewables & Policy: Nepal says its energy sector is entering a “decisive” transformation phase with transmission and private trading plans; Rajasthan approved PM-KUSUM solar support for nearly 600 MW. Grid & Storage Buildout: AESC and Prevalon signed a 10+ GWh battery supply deal as utilities and data centers push for more grid-stabilizing storage. Local Solar Planning: A Bellville solar farm project faces calls for better in-person consultation after community backlash.

Geopolitics & Oil Markets: Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping after U.S. airstrikes, a move that could sharply disrupt flows and lift prices; even as some reports point to a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum that would reopen the strait and ease sanctions, officials warn details and enforcement still aren’t settled. Power & Grid Resilience: California’s Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety approved Southern California Edison’s wildfire mitigation plan updates, including shifting undergrounding targets and conductor goals. Renewables Momentum: Ember reports wind and solar hit 22% of global electricity in April, overtaking gas for the first time on a monthly basis. Utility Rates & Affordability: Black Hills Energy proposed an electric base-rate update tied to reliability spending, while Georgia’s GOP runoff spotlights voter anger over electricity bills and data-center demand. Energy Projects in Latin America: Venezuela granted Shell a license for the Loran offshore gas field and also created a permanent commission to select contractors for the electricity sector. Local Outages & Recovery: Storms left thousands without power in parts of the U.S., with crews restoring service in multiple communities.

Geopolitics & Energy Markets: Russia and China are building a parallel energy system to reduce reliance on Western-controlled payments and shipping, with the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline framed as a threat to U.S. LNG exports. Nuclear Power Race: A new analysis says China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s top nuclear generator within five years, driven by AI-driven electricity demand and supply disruptions. Nuclear Spending: ICAN reports U.S. nuclear weapons spending in 2025 topped all other nuclear-armed nations combined. Oil & Security: Ukraine says it struck Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar, while markets react to shifting Iran-risk headlines. Gas Projects in Venezuela: Venezuela granted Shell a license for the cross-border Loran gas field, calling it a step toward becoming a gas exporter. Grid & Reliability: Colorado regulators pushed back on Xcel’s natural gas investment plan, warning demand may not keep growing as electrification expands. Renewables & Storage: India’s KERC proposed new distributed solar rules that require storage for larger systems, and Delhi approved land for a solar pooling substation. Home Energy Tech: Zoho launched an in-house server aimed at cutting power use for AI, while Vatrer Power promoted modular rack battery storage for homes and off-grid users.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil prices jumped after Iran announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. carried out fresh strikes, reviving fears of supply disruption; U.S. crude inventories also fell sharply. Shipping & Sanctions: India confirmed three sailors died after a U.S. attack on a tanker accused of violating Iran’s blockade, while the U.S. seized the “Davina” carrying about 1.9 million barrels of Iranian crude. Power Reliability Under Strain: Bahamas Energy Minister JoBeth Coleby-Davis blamed power cuts on “growing pains” from reforms; in the U.S., Consumers Energy restored power to 50,000 Michigan customers after storms. Grid & Renewables Build-Out: UK grid operator NESO said 58% of projects due before 2030 have firm connection offers (37GW); Hungary’s Greenvolt commissioned a 99.8MW/288.6MWh battery system. Asia Clean Energy Deals: India’s Tata Power EV Charging Solutions signed an MoU to expand EV charging in Varanasi; Oil India and Canada’s PTRC agreed to cooperate on CCUS and geothermal. Local Power Sector Moves: Philippines cooperatives deployed crews after a 7.8 quake, and Benguet Electric began installing insulated tree wires to cut outage-causing contact.

Middle East Oil Security: Trump says a “secret mission” helped more than 100 million barrels of oil move through the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. also struck an oil tanker off Oman and Iran tensions keep oil prices supported. Grid Reliability & Outages: Arizona’s SRP and EDP Renewables finished a 200MW/800MWh battery project, while PG&E’s PSPSs and storm-driven outages left hundreds without power in parts of California and Illinois. Nuclear Cooperation: Slovakia and Canada agreed to deepen ties in nuclear energy and energy security, including possible business missions. Renewables & Storage Growth: Solar overtook coal in the U.S. power mix for the first month on record, and Nigeria pushed solar generators and a pipeline of large-scale solar projects toward major capacity targets. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire: Russia’s Kuibyshev refinery halted processing after a drone attack, and reports also point to refinery damage in southern Russia after Ukrainian strikes. Data Centers, Power Demand: Montana coverage flags plans for large gas generation to feed a proposed data center near Broadview, and Texas grid analysts warn of tightening supply as data centers surge. Policy & Legal: A federal judge blocked Alabama’s nitrogen gas execution protocol, adding to the week’s legal turbulence around energy-adjacent governance.

Agri Waste-to-Energy in India: SAEL Industries commissioned a 14.9 MW biomass plant in Bhadra, Rajasthan, lifting operational agri waste-to-energy capacity to 164.9 MW under a long-term PPA, using crop residues to cut open-burning emissions. Solar Supply Deals: Trinasolar signed an MoU with Ecohope Solar to supply and distribute 600 MW of Vertex N G3 and Vertex S+ G3 modules across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa over three years. Grid Security in Europe: TenneT warned the Netherlands’ electricity supply risk will rise, saying the shortage standard could be breached from 2030 and urging a capacity mechanism. Energy Storage for Renewables: Sri Lanka’s PM said energy storage systems are being planned to optimise higher renewable penetration, targeting 70% renewables by 2030. LNG Infrastructure in Asia: Gas Malaysia, with Tokyo Gas and VTTI, signed a JDA for an LNG regasification terminal in Yan, Kedah, targeting up to 6 mtpa via an offshore FSRU. Power System Reliability: UK Ofgem awarded £22.9m via its SIF to support energy projects, while Merseyrail reported disruptions from power supply problems at Liverpool Central and Moorfields. Oil & Security Tensions: Ukraine struck Russian fuel and defense-linked sites, including oil pumping stations feeding Moscow’s pipeline network, as Iran–U.S. escalation kept markets jittery. Gas Supply Watch: Gasunie warned Dutch underground gas storage is only 19.5% full, raising winter adequacy concerns.

US Fuel Prices & Policy: Indiana’s gas tax holiday extended to July 7, keeping the state’s average regular price near the lowest in the nation, while GasBuddy snapshots show pockets of cheaper gas across the US as prices slide. Middle East Energy Security: Kuwait says it is reshaping its oil-and-gas playbook after Iran war disruptions choked access to the Strait of Hormuz, and the US-Kuwait push focuses on infrastructure and safe navigation. Renewables Investment: Morocco plans about $16bn over five years to add 16 GW of solar and wind, aiming to push renewables above 45% of its energy mix. Grid & Storage Business: GM rolls out software that lets some EV owners feed power back to the grid, and Brookfield and Mitsubishi launch a Europe-focused renewable power joint venture. Local Energy & Land Use: A proposed Maryland solar project near Centreville faces opposition over farmland and growth-area impacts. Energy in Court: A federal judge permanently blocks Alabama’s nitrogen-gas execution, a reminder of how energy-adjacent policy can still collide with legal and constitutional fights. Clean Tech Spotlight: UK’s BiofuelAi wins a £1m prize for AI that helps biogas plants boost output and cut emissions.

Nuclear Fuel Supply: Orano says it expects to start producing nuclear fuel at its Oak Ridge enrichment facility by 2031, targeting today’s U.S. reactor fleet. Nuclear Project Milestone: Turkey’s Akkuyu plant completed fuel loading tests for its first reactor unit, moving closer to startup. LNG Build-Out: China has begun construction of the world’s largest LNG carrier in Shanghai, with delivery planned for 2028; Poland also moves ahead with a second LNG terminal advisory contract for Gdansk. Oil Market Watch: Oil slipped after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks, easing the immediate risk premium, while analysts warn volatility could persist around Strait of Hormuz reopening timelines. Energy Security & Power: Alberta is pitching cheap natural gas for AI data centers, clashing with Canada’s push for cleaner power; Moldova extends gas supply responsibility to Transnistria through end-2026. Coal & Grid Reliability: The U.S. is sending $46m in federal funds to keep TVA’s Cumberland coal plant running longer. Regional Disruptions: Iraq accelerates alternative export routes via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline as Hormuz disruptions hit revenues.

Oil Market & Geopolitics: Oil prices swung after Israel-Iran signals of paused attacks, with Brent around $94 and WTI near $91 as traders weighed renewed Middle East risk against a cooling of immediate escalation. Macro Impact: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, blaming the oil shock and higher energy costs, while noting IT spending is cushioning demand. Energy Security (New Zealand LNG): New Zealand moved LNG procurement forward toward an operational 2028 facility, with the government saying it won’t fund it via a levy on power bills. Power Reliability (US coal): The US DOE ordered Orlando’s OUC to keep a coal plant running longer due to rising data-center demand. Nuclear Momentum: Ormat unveiled what it calls the industry’s largest geothermal design (100MW Ormega100), while Uzbekistan began construction of its first nuclear power plant. Coal & Health (Canada): Saskatchewan health groups urged dropping plans to extend coal-fired generation to 2050. Local Energy Projects: Ghana received first Jubilee crude for refining at Sentuo Oil Refinery, and El Salvador advanced a solar plant expected to generate 20,000 MWh annually.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil prices jumped more than 4% after Israel and Iran traded strikes, with markets again fearing disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent to around $97. Ukraine Energy Targets: Ukrainian forces hit oil facilities in Russia and occupied Crimea, including the Grushovaya oil trans-shipment base near Novorossiysk, while Russia reported large drone interceptions. OPEC+ Output Boost: OPEC+ approved another July production quota increase of 188,000 bpd, but traders said extra supply may not offset shipping and infrastructure risks. Market Fallout: India’s Sensex and Nifty fell sharply as crude spiked and global tech stocks sold off; Pakistan’s PSX also slid on oil-price and budget uncertainty. Shipping Incident: India reported a fire on the Marivex oil tanker off Oman with 24 Indian sailors safe; cause under investigation. LNG & Finance: Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project got a bullish Standard Bank macro read on delayed development, while Adani Ports won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export project. Nuclear Momentum: India is considering opening nuclear power to private investment via assured power deals and possible support under the ₹1 lakh crore RDI scheme.

Nuclear Security: Ukraine says a Russian drone hit the centralized spent-fuel storage facility in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, damaging a fuel reception building; radiation stayed within normal limits and no spent fuel was reported present. Oil Market & OPEC+: OPEC+ approved a fourth straight quota increase of 188,000 bpd for July as Hormuz disruption continues to strain flows; oil prices jumped on renewed Middle East missile risk. Middle East Escalation: Israel says Iran launched missiles in the first such attack since a fragile ceasefire, complicating mediation efforts. Nuclear Builds: Uzbekistan began construction of its first nuclear power plant, with a small modular reactor unit moving into implementation under Rosatom and IAEA oversight. Regional Supply Moves: Iraq reported US crude imports rising to 43,000 bpd after a prior week with none, while Egypt’s Sinai offshore fields hit the highest daily output since 2017. Gas & Drilling Signals: US gas storage added less than expected and fell below 2025 levels; US rig counts rose for a seventh straight week.

Nuclear Security in Focus: Ukraine says a Russian drone hit a spent-fuel storage facility near the disused Chernobyl plant, partially damaging a container-receiving building but leaving radiation within normal limits; the IAEA says it will inspect the site. Energy War Impacts: Ukraine also reports drone strikes on an oil depot and maritime fuel terminal in occupied Crimea, targeting fuel supply for Russian forces. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ is set to approve a fourth output quota increase, as Hormuz-tinged West Asia tensions keep traders nervous; analysts point to crude moves and upcoming inflation data as key drivers for gold and broader markets. Nuclear Expansion & Policy: Uzbekistan has started construction on its first nuclear power plant (about $9.5bn), while Malaysia’s nuclear decision hinges on meeting IAEA “milestones” across safety, waste, regulation, and grid readiness. Renewables & Industry: Odisha’s governor inaugurated a 485 kWp rooftop solar plant at Lok Bhavan, and India’s edible oil market is moving toward standard pack sizes to improve price comparison.