AGP Executive Report

Oil Supply Risks: Brent topped $111 a barrel as attacks on Saudi targets and reports of damaged vessels near the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of disruption. Rising shipping costs are also squeezing refiners and driving up fuel costs. North Sea Gas: The UK approved the Jackdaw project off Scotland, saying it would bolster domestic supply; gas could begin flowing later this year. Pipeline Investment: Kinder Morgan approved $4.7 billion for two US gas pipeline projects, citing demand from power generation, data centres and LNG exports. Grid Demand: Singapore is planning grid upgrades and supply diversification as electricity demand is forecast to grow 2.9% to 6.5% annually over the next decade. Investment Outlook: An Adipec survey found 85% of energy insiders see the sector as more attractive to investors than five years ago, despite geopolitical risks.

Heating Oil: The U.S. Energy Department will loan up to 315,000 barrels from the Northeast reserve to ease winter price pressures; borrowers must return the fuel with a premium before next season. Oil Markets: Brent topped $110 as attacks and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz kept prices high, even as Gulf exports rose above prewar levels through alternative routes. Energy Security: Ukrainian energy companies urged faster international aid ahead of winter, warning that Russian strikes continue to damage power, gas and heating infrastructure. North Sea Gas: The UK approved drilling at the Jackdaw gas field, drawing criticism from clean-energy groups as the government’s decision on Rosebank remains uncertain. U.S. Power Bills: Michigan’s Consumers Energy plans another gas-rate case days after regulators approved a $139 million increase; the state attorney general plans to intervene. Renewables: Wind industry leaders meeting in Beijing highlighted surging electricity demand and the push to scale wind and hybrid projects.

Data-Centre Power: Australia’s NextDC cut its FY2027 earnings forecast by more than a third and paused new projects after Melbourne power delays disrupted growth. North Sea Gas: The UK approved the controversial Jackdaw field, which could lift domestic gas output by about 6% and start supplying homes this month; ministers say a new fund will direct £2 billion toward the energy transition. Oil and Security: Brent topped $110 a barrel amid Middle East supply fears, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said two tankers caught fire after striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Ukraine: Russian strikes hit energy facilities in four regions, triggering outages as attacks on the country’s power network continue. India’s Power Crunch: Critically low coal stocks at 96 of 191 power plants are straining supply as demand surges and hydro output falls. Grid Transition: China’s rapid wind and solar expansion is running ahead of transmission and grid flexibility, limiting how much clean power reaches users. Household Bills: More than nine million UK homes enter winter in debt to their energy supplier or without a bill buffer.

Oil Shock: Crude swung near five-month highs as Iran reported tankers hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz; reports of a US-Iran mediation proposal briefly eased prices, but no deal is confirmed. North Sea Gas: The UK is expected to approve the Jackdaw field on Wednesday as gas prices hit a four-year high. Supporters say it could supply up to 6% of UK demand; opponents argue it will not lower bills and risks climate targets. Nuclear Power: Slovakia’s Mochovce 4 has begun supplying the grid. At full capacity, it is expected to cover about 13% of the country’s electricity use, though analysts caution it may not cut prices. War and Power: A Russian drone struck an energy facility in Kyiv, amid reports that more than half a million Ukrainian families have lost electricity after attacks. Energy Costs: Visegrad countries are urging the EU to offer industries more flexible support as high prices fuel concern over Europe’s competitiveness.

Ukraine’s Power Grid: Russian overnight strikes damaged more than 10 energy facilities, cutting electricity to over 500,000 households. DTEK reported three facilities hit in Odesa, leaving 32,700 families without power; President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine received no advance warning. Oil and Fuel Prices: Brent crude hovered near $110 a barrel as Middle East tensions and shipping risks kept markets volatile. UK heating oil prices have risen 47% since July, squeezing more than 40,000 Suffolk households that rely on it. Grid Bottlenecks: Microsoft withdrew from a deal tied to a UK data-centre site after grid officials projected power connections would not arrive until the 2030s, underscoring how electricity shortages threaten AI expansion. Solar and Storage: High fuel costs are accelerating interest in rooftop solar in the Philippines, while Sri Lanka added a 10 MW solar plant expected to supply 19 GWh annually. Poland will make it easier from December to pair home solar with batteries rated up to 2.2 times the system’s power.

Energy Security: Qatar warned that disruptions to Gulf energy supplies could drive up global costs and disrupt trade, as it cautioned against charging ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Markets: Crude eased after Washington relaxed some Russian sanctions, but renewed Hormuz tensions kept supply risks in focus. Grid Strain: Malaysia expects data-center electricity demand to reach 8.39 GW by 2030; in the UK, Microsoft withdrew from a data-center deal after learning grid power may not be available until the 2030s. Nuclear Power: The U.S. is backing restarts of three shuttered nuclear plants with up to $4.4 billion in federal loans, as technology companies seek more electricity. Ukraine: Russian strikes hit substations and other energy infrastructure, adding pressure to the country’s power grid. Clean Energy: The UK’s offshore wind expansion will depend on faster grid connections and market reforms, analysts say.

Grid Bottleneck: Microsoft has dropped its lease on a UK data centre after its developer said grid power may not arrive until the 2030s, underscoring how electricity access is holding back AI expansion. Power Reliability: Sri Lanka faces possible cuts after all three units at its Norochcholai coal plant failed, removing about 900 MW from the grid. Russian attacks also left around 66,000 electricity connections without power in Ukraine’s Volyn region. Clean Energy Investment: Greenzo Energy India raised INR 130 crore to expand electrolyser manufacturing and hydrogen projects, while Evolve Green Energies plans to build 3 GW of renewable assets by 2030. Oil Markets: Crude slipped from a five-month high after the US eased some Russia sanctions, but prices remained elevated amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Gas Infrastructure: Ghana Gas is planning a 278-kilometre pipeline to connect western gas supplies with Tema and serve industries across four regions.

Oil and Gas: Iraq’s prime minister has ordered a push to raise crude production and revenues after oil income fell 53% year over year in the first seven months of 2026. Saudi Arabia is also planning another expansion of its gas network beyond 2032, citing growing demand from power and data centres. Energy Security: Ukrainian drones struck Russian oil facilities in St. Petersburg, while Russian attacks damaged energy infrastructure near Odesa and left about 24,000 households without power. Ukraine is preparing scheduled outages as it repairs damage. Oil Markets: Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel amid fears over Gulf supply disruptions, including reported tanker fires in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington’s 60-day pause on some Russian oil sanctions adds another layer of uncertainty for buyers. Gas Policy: Australia’s proposed rule requiring LNG exporters to reserve up to 20% of volumes for domestic use has raised concern among major Asian customers. Electricity Costs: Ontario will cut its household electricity rebate from November, though winter time-of-use rates are also set to fall.

Power Demand: GE Vernova plans to invest about $11 billion by 2028 and lift annual gas-turbine capacity to 30 GW by 2030, citing rising demand from AI, data centers and industry. Nuclear Expansion: Uzbekistan says it plans two more nuclear plants to secure reliable electricity and lower prices, while its first plant is under construction. Energy Security: A Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at St. Petersburg’s oil terminal and disrupted power for thousands; separate reports say two tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as oil reached $110 a barrel. Renewables: The UK’s AR8 wind and solar auction is running on its slowest timetable, with results due in February; analysts say grid upgrades and market reforms are also crucial to offshore wind growth. Supply Chains: China has proposed export controls on 12 solar-manufacturing technologies, raising concerns for countries building domestic panel industries. Household Relief: A £30 million UK fund will offer energy-bill support, including free appliances, as households face rising debt and winter heating costs.

Ukraine’s Power Grid: Russian strikes damaged energy facilities in Chernihiv, cutting power to nearly 19,000 customers, and hit infrastructure again in Ternopil. Repairs are subject to security conditions. Oil Shock: Crude touched $110 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz tensions intensified, with Iran reporting that two tankers caught fire after striking mines. Pakistan says supplies are secure through November, but warned Gulf infrastructure attacks threaten its longer-term outlook. Russia Sanctions: President Trump waived tariffs and sanctions targeting Russian energy buyers, offering relief to countries including India as prices surge. Power Supply: Sri Lanka restored electricity islandwide after an outage; its system operator has yet to confirm the cause. Nuclear & Demand: The U.S. is lending up to $4.4 billion to restart three shuttered nuclear plants, adding 2.25 gigawatts to meet rising demand, including from data centers. Clean Energy Access: A new 1-MW solar mini-grid with battery storage will serve more than 6,000 households and businesses in Gombe, Nigeria; solar irrigation projects in the Philippines will bring water to 45 hectares of farmland.

Oil Shock: Brent settled at $109.86 a barrel, up 3.7%, as Middle East supply fears mounted. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz; the claim has not been independently verified. Sanctions and Supply: Trump waived tariffs and sanctions provisions targeting major buyers of Russian oil and gas, giving India and China temporary relief. US Central Command says its campaign has sharply curtailed Iran’s maritime trade. Grid Pressure: Russian attacks hit energy facilities in 10 Ukrainian regions, cutting power for some consumers. Sri Lanka reported an islandwide outage and asked rooftop-solar owners to switch off systems while crews work to restore supply. Infrastructure: The US fast-tracked permitting for a 500-kV Arizona–California transmission line. Qatar and Lebanon advanced plans for electricity and gas supply that could eventually provide up to 3,000 MW. Renewables and Demand: Truzon secured an INR 236-crore contract for 72 MW of solar projects in Maharashtra. OPEC forecasts global oil demand will rise by 2.4 million barrels a day in 2027, led by India and other Asian economies.

Oil and Security: Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel as Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war raised supply concerns; tanker attacks have increased, though oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have held up. Russian strikes knocked out power to more than one million people in Ukraine, with repairs restoring service to many. Renewables: Victoria approved plans for a 1.5-gigawatt wind farm with two battery systems, pending federal review. Lebanon’s Power Grid: Qatar will finance and operate an electricity project, starting with a solar plant developed with TotalEnergies, to help modernize the country’s strained power system. India’s Energy Shift: India has reached its goal of getting half its installed power capacity from non-fossil sources five years early; BloombergNEF expects the share to exceed 60% by 2028. Nuclear Power: The United States is backing efforts to restart three shuttered plants, aiming to add 2.25 gigawatts of electricity amid rising demand from data centers.

Oil and Supply Risks: Brent hovered near $105 a barrel and was on track for a weekly gain as disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz rattled supply. The IEA agreed to speed up reserve releases, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel. Middle East Tensions: President Donald Trump said the US may strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site; reports say energy infrastructure could also be targeted. Europe’s Energy Bills: EU leaders urged the Commission to consider targeted, temporary measures to curb high energy costs, while reaffirming the role of the energy transition in reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuels. Power Access and Reliability: Nigeria ruled out a tariff increase as it launched 17.7 MW of solar mini-grids with battery storage in Oyo State. Russian attacks left parts of Kyiv and Lutsk without reliable power. Industry and Safety: An explosion at an NNPC pipeline in Rivers State injured residents and damaged nearby buildings. Kuwaiti state-owned TGA is exploring oil, gas, solar and storage investments in Cambodia.

Oil Supply Shock: Iran reported another tanker fire east of Hormuz as the conflict disrupts shipping. The IEA says members have released 330 million barrels from reserves and will speed up the remaining 100 million, including diesel. Ukraine’s Energy War: Kyiv resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries after Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure continued during a brief, disputed energy truce. Bills and Relief: New York is sending energy rebates to 5.2 million more households, while Pakistan expects electricity bills to rise by Rs2.56 per unit in November. Clean Power: India’s NTPC invited bids for modules for 2.1 GW of solar projects, and Rajasthan awarded 2.45 GW of solar paired with battery storage. Grid Pressure: Harris County officials warn that data-center growth could add 8 GW of electricity demand by 2029, intensifying concerns about power costs and infrastructure.

Oil and Supply Risks: Crude prices eased as investors weighed weaker demand against attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, where ships have been hit and sunk. Washington is considering easing restrictions on some tankers to reduce shipping costs. Household Bills: Greek heating oil is forecast to rise 38% this winter despite bigger subsidies, while EU leaders face pressure to curb energy prices as officials warn of a difficult season. Grid Investment: India expects to add more than 70 GW of generation capacity in FY27 and is pushing AI tools for managing demand and renewables. Malaysia’s TNB says major investment in generation and grid upgrades is needed as data centres and electrification drive demand; Nigeria has approved plans for eastern and western grids to tackle repeated outages. Energy Links: Seabed surveys could resume for the Crete-Cyprus power cable, a step toward strengthening regional electricity connections. Energy Diplomacy: Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan discussed expanding oil and gas cooperation, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due in India for talks focused in part on energy security.

Energy Conflict: Russia and Ukraine traded accusations over attacks on energy sites, as Moscow’s strikes left about 600,000 Ukrainians without power. Kyiv says Russia breached a ceasefire announced by Donald Trump; Moscow says Ukraine hit two refineries, a claim Kyiv denies. Oil & Prices: Attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven Middle East oil and LNG exports sharply lower, adding to supply fears. US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, with higher energy costs a key factor. Grid Reliability: The US declared a temporary power emergency across 13 states and Washington, D.C., giving PJM authority to call on additional generation through Oct. 16; officials said it was precautionary, not a blackout warning. Greenland Exploration: Trump says major oil, gas and mineral exploration is nearing start, but gave no details of US involvement. Solar: Michigan’s 120-megawatt Hart project is now supplying power under long-term contracts, while Arizona lawmakers questioned leasing state land for solar rather than housing. Oil Revenues: Newfoundland and Labrador expects a larger-than-forecast windfall from surging crude prices and is still weighing an investment in Equinor’s Bay du Nord project.